MODELLING COINFECTION DYNAMICS OF HIV&AIDS, TUBERCULOSIS AND HEPATITIS C VIRUS

  • C.L. Ani Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Air Force Institute of Technology, Kaduna,
  • U.M. Hassan Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Maiduguri,
  • G.A. Adesue Department of HIV Prevention, AIDS Healthcare Foundation, Lafia,

Abstract

HIV and coinfection (i.e. Tuberculosis and Hepatitis C) adversely affects the lives of individuals in both the biological and psychosocial aspects. This study focuses on modelling coinfection dynamics of HIV&AIDS and some selected opportunistic infections, there-by determining their long-run and causal relationship. The study focuses on six (6) states in the North West Geo-Political Region of Nigeria, these states under study includes; Kaduna, Sokoto, Katsina, Kano, Zamfara and Kebbi. The Johansen Multivariate Cointegration approach was applied to establish the long-run relationship among variables and Granger Causality test was also applied to determine whether variables move in either unidirectional or bidirectional. The results for the cointegration test showed that there is a long-run relationship between HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Hepatitis C in Kaduna, Katsina and Kebbi States. While, Granger causality test indicates that, no bidirectional Granger causality is found in the sample period, only unidirectional causality. The test showed that in the short-run HIV/AIDS Granger causes Tuberculosis in Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi, while, HIV/AIDS Granger causes Hepatitis C in only Kaduna and Sokoto.

Published
2020-10-01
Section
ARTICLES